DIMAND
Delivery Phase In, Mega Pipeline On
Making some headway, enjoying some respite – 2024 was a year of meaningful delivery
for Dimand, marked by the successful monetisation of Insignio and Hub 26, which helped
unlock capital to support the development pipeline. While exits from Minion, EEDE Patisia
and Piraeus Tower slipped into 2025, the closing of the Skyline transaction and the
significant rebound in financial performance—2024 EBITDA rose to €58m from €19m—
underscored growing operational momentum. From a market perspective, the price
performance during 2024 was disappointing (-22%), but with the stock enjoying some
respite during 2025 following idiosyncratic news (new projects) and a generic re-rating of
Greek equities.
2025 shaping up as a pivotal monetization year – Our investment thesis is predicated on
value creation stemming from asset monetization and capital recycling via the selling of
Dimand’s participation in the SPVs developing the properties. With 13 projects poised to be
completed over 2025-28e, asset turnover is set to increase markedly in the coming years
helping the group bolster its balance sheet, monetize the capital invested and increase ROE.
Indicatively, we estimate total profits of c€170m to be crystallized from the current pipeline
through 2028e, of which c€34m in 2025e alone, rendering this year pivotal for monetization.
How to value Dimand – Valuing Dimand is a rather herculean task due to the complexities
associated with the group’s structure and the nature of the development business itself.
Our approach is quite simple, namely we value Dimand’s stake in: 1) projects in progress, 2)
projects recently announced; and 3) project Skyline, while also adding the value of: 4) the
project mgt services business, which is “asset-light” and can be considered a recurring
income stream. We are not keen to assign a perpetual value for Dimand at this stage, since
our PT is on a 12m basis and, at the current juncture, we believe that any growth potential
for the company beyond its current and in-progress land bank scale would be hard to be
priced-in. Our reverse-engineering exercise suggests that the current share price
incorporates solely the well telegraphed projects in progress, Skyline and the value of the
services Business, while leaving as free-option the recently announced projects (Lavrio,
Notos, Cambas and Gournes) with €1.2bn total development cost and potential value
creation near €2.5 per share, on our numbers, in present value terms.
Valuation: PT lifted on enlarged project pipeline – We have recalibrated our model
refreshing our numbers for: 1) project phasing assumptions (e.g. push-back of construction
progress), 2) Skyline project perimeter and shareholder structure changes (e.g.
incorporating a lower effective stake for Dimand); 3) an enlarged new project pipeline,
namely incl. Cambas and Gournes. Our valuation remains based on the aforementioned
SOTP framework and has been edged up to €12.0/share, mainly as a result of the scalingup of Dimand’s project pipeline. Valuation-wise, although the stock has seen some respite
recently rebounding to levels near the €9.5-10.0 mark, the valuation looks subdued at still
c1x P/spot NAV. We remind that global developers with 2-digit ROEs normally trade at or
above 1x P/NAV. Given the capital generation embedded in our numbers, the discount to
NAV on 2025-26e looks overly punitive in our view. We thus reiterate that we expect the
shares to trade higher in the valuation spectrum as confidence in the company’s ability to
sustain ROE in the 2-digits grows and as mgt continues to execute project exits (e.g. Minion,
EEDE and Piraeus Tower in 2025e)
Estimates
EURm unless otherwise stated 2022 2023 2024 2025e 2026e
Revenues 10.6 9.4 28.4 54.1 52.7
EBITDA 7.1 19.3 58.0 51.8 84.8
Net profit – reported -7.8 13.2 37.0 45.3 74.3
EPS (EUR) -0.51 0.71 1.98 2.43 3.98
DPS (EUR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Valuation
Year to end December 2022 2023 2024 2025e 2026e
Adj. PE NM 17.2x 4.7x 3.9x 2.4x
P/NAV 2.1x 1.6x 1.0x 0.8x 0.6x
EBIT/Interest expense 0.6x 9.3x 18.3x 7.9x 7.7x
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Adj. ROE -6.3% 12.8% 34.1% 22.3% 28.3%
DIMAND
July 22, 2025
2
Valuation
We continue to value Dimand through a SOTP-based approach, namely: 1) Dimand’s stake in
existing projects in progress, 2) the new projects recently announced (Cambas and Gournes, as
well as the already known projects in cooperation with Piraeus bank, namely Lavrio and
Lykourgou & Aiolou building), adding up to a development cost of €1.2bn by our math, and 3)
project Skyline (whose assumptions we have recalibrated to reflect the lower asset perimeter
and Dimand’s lower effective stake). To these, we add the value of the project management
services business which is “asset-light” and can be considered a recurring income stream that
can be valued on a multiple-basis. We are not keen to assign a further perpetual value for
Dimand at this stage, since our price-target is on a 12-month basis and, at the current juncture,
we believe that any growth potential for the company beyond its current and in-progress land
bank scale would be hard to be priced-in. In more detail:
1. Projects in progress
Data provided by the company (here) regarding key project data is particularly helpful in
assessing attributable cash profit, as it includes yield assumptions embedded in the GDV
calculation by independent valuers, work in progress rates and fair values (also as per
independent valuers). We have used the aforementioned data while also making some
assumptions regarding:
– Funding: a 60/40% debt/equity funding structure, broadly in sync with project financing
modalities.
– Development cost: we have assumed a yield-to-construct of c7.5% on average, thus
translating into a c1.6-1.7% yield differential upon asset monetization. We calculate the
overall construction (hard) cost using remaining cost and WIP data, while estimating the
overall development cost (including the cost of land and “soft” expenses such as legal fees,
insurance and taxes, marketing and sales etc.) by inflating hard costs by 20-40% in most
project cases. We then calculate cash profit by deducting the total cost from GDV.
Projects in progress (31/12/2024)
EURm unless otherwise stated
Project Sector GBA
(Ksqm) Est. Exit GDV Yield Working
progress
Remaining
construction
cost
Est.
dev/nt
cost
Estimated
cash
profit
Dimand
stake
Attributable
cash profit
Piraeus Tower Mixed Use 34.3 2025 135 5.7% 100% 0 91 44 46% 20
Alkanor (Minion) Mixed Use 18.6 2025-26 71 5.1% 63% 8 54 16 100% 16
IQ Athens Mixed use 82.0 2026 189 6.8% 7% 104* 149 40 100% 40
Aghialos Logistics 120.0 2026 160 6.3% 3% 108 140 20 100% 20
Filma (Fix) Mixed use 68.7 2027 151 5.6% 2% 92 128 24 100% 24
3V Mixed Use 64.0 2027 126 7.0% 0% 69 101 25 57% 14
Other projects Various 63.6 up to 2027 192 4.0% 4% 64 130 62 57% 35
Total 1,024 446 792 232 170
Source: Eurobank Eq. Research, Company *EE estimates, which compare with independent valuator at €124m
Overall, on our estimates, the attributable cash profit for Dimand from the above projects is
near €170m, which corresponds to the equity value upon asset monetization, namely sale of
Dimand’s stakes in the respective SPVs.
We summarise the above on a yearly basis, as the timing of monetization is an overriding driver
of value crystallization. We have rolled over our valuation to 2025, and are eyeing 3 exits in the
particular year, of which two relate to the flagship assets of Minion and Piraeus Tower. Overall,
we expect a >€34m cash profit for Dimand from the 2025 exits (Piraeus Tower, Minion and
EEDE Patissia), which are set to bolster the group’s cash position and could potentially pave the
way for the distribution of a dividend. Dimand’s exit timeline envisages significant inflows in
the next few years as well. Discounting these flows to the present using an 11% WACC, we end
up with a PV of €140m.
Projects in progress, view by project exit date
EURm unless otherwise stated 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e Cumulative
GDV 195 360 343 126 1,024
Total development cost 136 298 257 101 792
Estimated cash profit (consolidated) 58 62 86 25 232
Attributable cash profit 34 62 59 14 170
DIMAND
July 22, 2025
3
2. Skyline
We continue to value Skyline separately, without incorporating any future contributions in our
consolidated figures. The Skyline transaction was completed on 20.12.2024, under a revised
perimeter compared to what had initially been communicated (see p.7), as several asset
disposals from the portfolio took place in the interim period. As a result, the Group, through
the joint venture P&E Investments S.A., acquired a 65% stake in Skyline Real Estate S.A. for a
consideration of €98.7m.
At the closing date, the portfolio value was at €298m, consisting of 460 properties according to
press reports, of which €180m (30 properties) comprise the hold portfolio, and the remainder
assets earmarked for sale. Accordingly, Alpha Bank’s financing was adjusted to up to €156m.
Dimand recorded an attributable profit of €12.4m from the asset sales that occurred up to the
transaction’s closing date.
According to management, the portfolio currently generates €10.2m in annual rental income,
which is expected to rise to c€23m by the end of the investment horizon, namely 2030.
A further notable development concerns Dimand’s effective stake in the consortium. Following
the sale of a 49% interest in Metrinwood Ltd (which has a participation of 55% in P&E
Investments S.A.), Dimand’s effective participation in the JV has been reduced to 28.05% from
55% previously.
From a valuation viewpoint, we estimate a cash profit of >€30m from the trading portfolio (for
the Dimand-led consortium). As for the Hold portfolio, assuming that capex is funded by c75%
with debt, we anticipate c€23m cash profit at exit, likely to take place in 2030-31. Operationally,
with rentals near €23m by 2030e and assuming an EBITDA margin >75% after redevelopments
conclude, we estimate cumulative cash EBITDA over the period through to 2030e to reach near
€80m.
Summing these three elements (namely trading portfolio, hold portfolio and cash income
stream post tax), we estimate a nominal value for Skyline near €116m, or c€75m for the
Dimand-led consortium. This corresponds to a cash multiple of >2x (on the equity invested by
the consortium) by our calculation, an estimate which is somewhat more conservative than
mgt’s own projections (c2.5x). The present value of this cash profit is hard to gauge given the
lack of clarity regarding the timing of the actual flows. That said, utilizing a c11% discount rate
and discounting the nominal amount for 7 years (to account for the backloaded nature of the
exit inflow), we estimate a c€32m proportionate present value for the consortium. This
corresponds to c€0.48/share attributable to Dimand shareholders (for Dimand’s 28% stake).
Skyline Valuation
EURm unless otherwise stated Exit
Trading portfolio
Sale 148
Invested capital -118
Cash profit 30
Hold portfolio
Value 349
Invested capital -255
Financial expenses -71
Cash profit 23
Cumulative cash operating income stream (post tax) 63
Skyline value (nominal) 116
Skyline value (nominal), proportionate 75
Cash profit (net) 75
Cash multiple 2.2x
Present value of cash profit 32
Assumed Dimand effective stake 28% 0.48€/share
DIMAND
July 22, 2025
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3. Project management services income
These services encompass comprehensive project coordination, including preliminary studies,
licensing, construction, and overall project management. Contracts with customers typically
embed fees as percentage of construction costs, and on that basis, one can argue it is
reasonable to see income related to these services to increase as the number of active projects
rises. Fee income businesses for developers are asset-light and in many cases are associated
with a premium to book value, especially if they are of significant scale. For Dimand, we have
applied a 10x multiple on a normalized income stream near €3m (a tad below €4m before due
to different sales mix and profitability), which we believe is sustainable given the project
backlog without assuming additional construction revenues beyond already contracted work.
4. Latest new projects
In mid-2024, Dimand announced a strategic partnership with Piraeus Bank for the development
of urban spaces in Attica and Thessaloniki. The partnership relates to 4 projects with
development cost near €500m including: 1) office space at Korai str. which will subsequently
be acquired by Piraeus Bank for housing its central services, 2) the redevelopment of the FIX
industrial complex which will be financed by Piraeus Bank, 3) the redevelopment of high-street
commercial property in the center of Athens (currently housing the Notos Com department
store), and 4) the restoration and development of urban infrastructure and building facilities in
Lavrio (Attica).
More recently (April 2025), Dimand announced it entered into a conditional agreement with
Ellaktor S.A. and REDS S.A. for the acquisition of real estate assets in Attica and Crete. In more
detail, the agreement includes: 1) Acquisition of 100% of Kantza Emporiki and Kantza
Development Companies, which own land plots of c319k sqm in the “Ktima Kampa” area
(Paiania & Pallini). The site allows for the development of 90k sqm of mixed-use space,
including 3.6k sqm of listed buildings. 2) Acquisition of 100% of Gournes Development
Company, owner of a 346k sqm plot in the Gournes area of Hersonissos, Crete. The site offers
potential development of 60k sqm with hospitality use; and 3) acquisition of two smaller plots
in the “Trigono Kampa” area of Pallini. The aforementioned projects have a total estimated
development value of €800mn, further bolstering the company’s development pipeline.
Using the above €500m as starting point (excluding the cost related to FIX complex and office
space in Korai str., which is accounted for in projects in progress and project management
services respectively in our model), we estimate that the 2 other projects of the first tranche
correspond to an incremental development cost near €375m. To that, we add the €800m
related to the second tranche of newly-added projects, coming up with a total development
cost of €1.2bn. Assuming a c1.8ppt yield differential, we estimate a net profit near €327m at
exit, corresponding to a cash multiple of c2x. Discounting this value at 17% for 8 years (to reflect
uncertainties incl. development costs, timing of flows etc.), we end up with an attributable
value for Dimand near €46m (€2.5/share).
Given the large scale and capital intensity of these projects, we do not assume 100% ownership
by Dimand, even though the company is expected to retain operational control. In line with
Dimand’s strategy, we see scope for bringing in an additional partner—potentially the end
buyer—as a means to share risk and support funding needs. This approach is consistent with
the group’s asset monetization model. s
New project assumptions
EURm unless otherwise stated
Project GDV at exit 1,515
Exit yield 6.2%
Development cost 1,174
Yield to construct 8.0%
Developer margin 23%
Equity % 35%
Net profit at exit 327
ROE 80%
Cash multiple 1.8x
COE 17%
DIMAND
July 22, 2025
5
Periods to discount 8
New projects value 77
Dimand stake assumed 60%
Dimand attributable new projects, PV (D) 46
Source: Eurobank Equities Research
5. Summing it all up
The table below sums up the above and summarizes our valuation for Dimand. As can be seen,
we estimate a fair value near €12.0 per share.
Dimand valuation
EURm unless otherwise stated
Equity Profits from projects in progress, Skyline and Project
Management Services (A+B+C) 179.7
New projects assumption
Dimand attributable new projects, PV (D) 46.3
– Net debt parent company (E) -2.2
SOTP (A, B, C, D, E) 223.8
Shares (mn) 18.7
Per share €12.0 €
Source: Eurobank Equities Research
Using our SOTP framework presented below, we argue that the current share price effectively
incorporates the well telegraphed projects in progress, the value of the services business and
project Skyline. On the other hand, the upside from the recently announced projects is
effectively offered as free option.
Bridge of PT
Source: Eurobank Equities Research
7.5 €
1.6 €
-0.1 €
0.5 €
0.0 €
2.5 €
DIMAND
July 22, 2025
6
Project snapshot
Dimand is one of Greece’s top Real Estate developers, offering a wide range of services,
including project and construction management, technical and advisory support, and facilities
management. Unlike traditional property developers that focus on retaining assets for rental
income, Dimand is engaged in developing assets for sale and often enters into joint ventures
with strategic partners, instead of owning projects outright.
As of December 2024, the Group’s portfolio consisted of 13 investment projects in progress
with GDV €1,024m (vs 20 projects with GDV €1,194m at the end of 2023). Besides these,
following the mid-2024 announcement of three new development projects in partnership with
Piraeus Bank (Lykourgou & Ianos, Lavrio, Korai), Dimand expanded its pipeline further in April
2025 with the acquisition of two strategic real estate assets in Attica and Crete (Cambas and
Gournes). These two flagship projects carry a combined estimated investment value of
€800mn, significantly enriching the company’s long-term development roadmap.
Among the aforementioned projects in progress, 7 are directly developed while 6 are managed
through JVs. The directly managed projects have a fair value of €142m and an estimated gross
development value (GDV) of c€610m upon completion, according to independent valuators.
The projects undertaken via joint ventures account for an additional fair value of €194m and
GDV of €413m upon completion.
Key projects
Due to its business model, Dimand mainly operates through SPVs, each corresponding to a
distinct project, with the company typically holding a majority stake. The table below provides
a concise overview of Dimand’s project portfolio, as of end June 2024:
# Projects as of 31.12.2024 Subsidiary Location Use
Exit to be completed in 2025
1 Piraeus Tower (income producing) Piraeus Tower SA Piraeus Mixed
2 Minion (income producing) Alkanor SA Athens Mixed
3 Office Building Random SMSA Patissia Offices
Completed
4 Omonoia Rinascita Athens Hotel
Projects in progress (already owned o
r to be acquired for dev)
5 Minion residential Dorou Residences Athens Residential
6 Corner Office/PR138 Piraeus Regeneration 138
SMSA Piraeus Offices
7 3V 3V SA Piraeus Mixed
8 Elaionas Business Park IQ Athens SMSA Athens Offices
9 Fix Brewery Filma Estate SMSA Thessaloniki Mixed
10 Balkan Export Premises Aghialos Estate SMSA Thessaloniki Logistics
11 Peania Office Park / Rehau IQ Karela SA Peania Offices
12 Evgenia Evgenia Homes SA Piraeus Offices
13 TEE DI Terna SA Maroussi Offices
Lykourgou & Aiolou building Athens Mixed
Cambas Kantza, Attica Mixed
Gournes Heraclion,
Crete Hospitality
Contracted projects (revenue recognition from dev services)
Hub 26 – Building E Thessaloniki Offices
Hub 204 Piraeus Piraeus
Courthouse
Korai & Stadiou Str. Athens Offices
Recently announced with limited granularity
Lavrio Lavrio Mixed
Source: Company, Eurobank Equities Research
Note: Cante holds a participation of 10% in Rinascitta (indirect participation of Dimand: 6.5%)
Regarding the recently announced projects of Cambas and Gournes, Dimand announced that
on April 11, 2025, it entered into a conditional agreement with Ellaktor S.A. and REDS S.A. for
the acquisition of real estate assets in Attica and Crete. The sites are linked to two flagship
projects with a total estimated investment value of c€800mn (according to press reports),
DIMAND
July 22, 2025
7
significantly enhancing the company’s future development pipeline. The agreement includes
the following assets: 1) Acquisition of 100% of Kantza Emporiki and Kantza Development
Companies, which own land plots of c319k sqm in the “Ktima Kampa” area (Paiania & Pallini).
The site allows for the development of 90k sqm of mixed-use space, including 3.6k sqm of listed
buildings. 2) Acquisition of 100% of Gournes Development Company, owner of a 346k sqm plot
in the Gournes area of Hersonissos, Crete. The site offers potential development of 60k sqm
with hospitality use. 3) Acquisition of two smaller plots in the “Trigono Kampa” area of Pallini:
A 4.4k sqm plot with potential for 1.8k sqm of residential development. A 1.3k sqm plot
including a 0.7k sqm listed building. The total agreed value for the assets amounts to €85.6mn,
of which €4.3mn was paid upfront, with the remaining to be paid upon closing. The final
acquisition price for the companies will be adjusted based on their financial position at the time
of completion. The transaction is subject to standard closing conditions, and is expected to be
completed by July 31, 2025 (or a later date if mutually agreed), while financing will be done
through a combination of equity and debt. The company estimates that ta construction of the
two projects will start in 2026.
Skyline
The Skyline transaction was completed on 20.12.2024, under a revised perimeter compared to
what had initially been communicated, as several asset disposals from the portfolio took place
in the interim period. As a result, the Group, through the joint venture P&E Investments S.A.,
acquired a 65% stake in Skyline Real Estate S.A. for a consideration of €98.7m. At the closing
date, the portfolio value was at €298m, reportedly consisting of 460 properties, of which
€180m (30 properties) comprise the hold portfolio, and the remainder assets earmarked for
sale. Accordingly, Alpha Bank’s financing was adjusted to up to €156m. Dimand recorded an
attributable profit of €12.4m from the asset sales that occurred until the transaction closing
date.
A further notable development concerns Dimand’s effective stake in the consortium. Following
the sale of a 49% interest in Metrinwood Ltd (which has a participation of 55% in P&E
Investments S.A.), Dimand’s effective participation in the JV stands at c28%.
DIMAND
July 22, 2025
8
Estimates and main assumptions overview
Starting with the income statement, we remind that Dimand’s operations fall into two distinct
categories: real estate services and real estate investments, with the latter being the backbone
of the company.
Revenue is primarily derived from subcontracting agreements, including those for the
development of projects by sold subsidiaries such as Citrus in Thessaloniki (transferred to the
Black Sea Trade and Development Bank), Hub204 in Piraeus (transferred to the Judicial
Buildings Financing Fund of the Ministry of Justice), and Iovis in Athens (Korai 4, transferred to
Piraeus Bank). Additionally, revenue stems from contracts for maintenance, investment
management and Dimand’s own development projects. Based on FY’24 results, which provided
greater clarity, we have revised upward our revenue estimates from subcontracting
agreements. Considering that the construction of the aforementioned three projects is
expected to be completed by th end of 2026-27, we project a c€26m total revenue increase in
2025e, followed by a small decrease of €1.5m in 2026e. We input revenues of €10m in 2027e,
but caveat this is predicated on the simplification that there is no replacement of revenues
from new construction mandates. At the profitability level, the higher revenue base of 2025-
26e will be partially offset by construction-related costs, with assumed operating profit margins
in the 30–35% range, depending on project mix and execution timelines.
Regarding real estate investment activities, income is generated from rental income from
completed projects, as well as gains from development projects recorded as “net fair value
gains/(losses)” which reflect the difference between the property’s book value (investment and
land acquisition costs) and its fair value. Additionally, “share of net profit / (loss) of investments
in JVs” reflect the proportionate gains of JVs. The fair value gains typically increase during
construction, partially capturing the value of the implemented investment. In this category, we
have adjusted the timing of fair value gain recognition to align with revised progress timelines
for individual projects. Following the successful exits from Insignio and Hub 26 in 2024, the
completion and divestment timelines remain largely in line with management’s initial
expectations.
Overall, we now forecast fair value gains on investment property at c€37m in 2025e, up from
our previous estimate of €32m, primarily driven by development progress at the IQ Athens and
Anchialos/Balkan projects. For 2026, we estimate gains of c€84m, supported by the completion
of the aforementioned projects and continued progress on the Fix development.
The above filter through to PBT near €45m in 2025e, little-changed vs our previous estimate,
as higher revenues are offset by elevated construction cost.
P&L overview
EURm 2023 2024 2025e 2026e 2027e*
Total Revenue 9.4 28.4 54.1 52.7 9.6
Real estate services 12.7 27.1 54.5 54.4 11.4
Real estate investments 0.0 5.7 1.3 0.0 0.0
Unallocated 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eliminations -3.3 -4.4 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8
Net Operating expenses / income 9.0 -5.3 -8.0 20.3 9.4
Real estate services -4.6 -19.8 -34.7 -35.0 -6.1
Real estate investments 19.3 20.4 32.7 61.5 21.9
– o/w Net fair value gains / (losses) on investment property 19.0 12.4 36.6 84.2 19.0
– o/w gains on disposals (incl JVs) 1.9 14.9 5.7 0.0 7.2
– o/w other income 3.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
– o/w Net change in inventory property 0.0 -4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
– o/w taxes and other expenses -5.1 -5.2 -11.9 -25.0 -6.6
Unallocated / overheads -6.6 -7.4 -7.5 -7.7 -7.8
– o/w personnel and other expenses -6.3 -7.0 -7.2 -7.4 -7.6
– o/w depreciation -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2
Eliminations 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Operating profit 18.4 23.1 46.1
DIMAND
July 22, 2025
9
Share of net profit / (loss) of investments in JVs 0.6 34.5 5.3 11.5 28.6
Finance income 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5
Finance expenses -2.0 -3.1 -6.5 -10.9 -4.4
Profit/(Loss) before tax 17.0 54.5 45.3 74.3 44.8
Source: Company, Eurobank Equities Research. * predicated on the simplification that there is no replacement of revenues from new
construction mandates.
Taxation
We remind that under Article 48a of Law 4127/2013, capital gains from share transfers are taxexempt if specific conditions, including a 24-month minimum holding period of entities, are
met. For Dimand, exits via SPV sales ensure gains are tax-exempt, making pre-tax results the
most relevant metric. We thus model zero income tax going forward.
Exits – Cash flows
The sector in which the group operates, coupled with the uniqueness of Dimand’s business
model (one based on asset monetization), means that beyond revenue from construction and
service provision, cash flow generation is rather opaque showcasing variation. The latter is
largely due to the timing of project exits. We remind that from a balance sheet perspective
sources of value crystallization are investment properties, JVs and inventories.
On the cash flow front, in 2024 the group divested from two properties, Insignio and Hub 26 as
well as from some other smaller projects (Kalliga Estate, Iovis -Korai building, Terra Attiva). The
exit from Minion is projected to occur in 2025 for the main building, while the residential
component, whose construction has not yet commenced, is set to be completed in 2026 (with
divestment likely shortly after). The management has also targeted the sale of Piraeus Tower
and Random SMSA (GDV of 24.9m included in other projects) by the end of 2025. We underline
that in our model, we have adopted a more conservative approach to inflow timing, assuming
the divestment of other projects in 2027 due to limited clarity on a project-by-project basis.
However, in practice, cash flows are likely to materialize gradually by 2027.
In short, we model c€35m of inflows in 2025e, >€60m in 2026e, and >€70m from remaining
exits over 2027–28e, supporting the group’s capital recycling strategy and ROE trajectory.
Largest projects’ monetization timing (€m)
Source: Eurobank Equities Research, Company data.
Note: Property valuation reports by independent valuers, end Dec 2024.
We expect Dimand to leverage the cash generated from the aforementioned asset
monetization as a source of funding for the scaling-up of its land bank portfolio.
Cash Flow outlook
EURm 2023 2024 2025e 2026e 2027e
EBITDA 19.3 58.0 51.8 84.8 47.9
(-) Net fair value gains / (losses) on investment property -19.4 -11.3 -36.6 -84.2 -19.0
(-) Gains / (losses) on sale of subsidiaries and JV inv. -1.8 -14.9 -5.7 0.0 -7.2
Change in Working Capital -4.0 6.4 0.4 5.5 -19.2
Net Interest -1.8 -4.4 -6.1 -10.1 -2.9
Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other -0.5 -33.6 -5.3 -11.5 -28.6
DIMAND
July 22, 2025
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Operating Cash Flow -8.2 0.2 -1.6 -15.5 -29.0
Capex -46.4 -23.6 -172.7 -174.8 -50.0
Investments in JVs -15.7 -17.0 -1.6 -4.3 -10.5
Other investing (incl. divi received), incl. disposals 41.3 25.3 60.6 179.9 129.9
Net Investing Cash Flow -20.8 -15.2 -113.6 0.7 69.5
Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other -3.2 48.3 30.0 179.9 75.6
Net inflow (outflow) -32.2 33.3 -85.2 165.2 116.1
Net debt /(cash) excl. leases 65.8 32.5 117.7 -47.5 -163.5
Source: Company, Eurobank Equities Research
Dividends
Contrary to expectations at the start of 2024, project exits during the year and improved capital
recycling did not translate into cash returns, as no dividend was paid out of FY24 profits. This
reflects both structural constraints—namely the limited ability to upstream cash from JVs and
subsidiaries to the parent company—and management’s strategic decision to retain liquidity in
support of the expanding development pipeline and to preserve flexibility for emerging
investment opportunities. Against this background, we have removed dividend distributions
from our estimates, although we note that progress in asset monetization could potentially
underpin cash returns in the next couple of years. Of note is that at its latest AGM, the company
announced a share buyback program of up to 200,292 shares, with a duration through June
2026 and a price range of €5 to €20 per share.
Non-consolidated projects
We note that our model does not yet consolidate the projects of Lavrio and Lykourgou & Aiolou
building (both in strategic cooperation with Piraeus Bank), as well as Cambas and Gournes
awaiting further details/granularity, although, as we explain in the relevant section, we have
reflected these in our valuation.
Summary of main changes
Considering that the exits from Insignio and Hub26 have successfully been made and taking all
the above into account, we summarize the key changes in our model:
– We have raised our revenue growth assumptions for project management activities to
account for income generated from contracts for the sale of ready-to-use buildings, such as
Citrus (Black Sea Trade and Development Bank) and Hub 204 (Piraeus Courthouse), as well
as the Korai project (Piraeus Bank). All these projects are set to be completed by the end of
2027. The increase in construction revenue is partially offset by corresponding construction
costs, while our assumption of no replacement for current projects (i.e. we only include
contracted ones) slightly weighs on the valuation due to lower projected recurring income.
– The second key change—though not yet reflected in our consolidated group figures – is the
incorporation in our valuation of the Campas and Gournes projects, representing a total
estimated investment of approximately €800m. For the time being, our modelling only
accounts for the land acquisition cost of €85.6m, as we await further granularity on
development assumptions.
– The third notable change, also not explicitly incorporated into our consolidated figures (but
included in our valuation), is the Skyline project (via P&E Investments, holding 65% of
Skyline). In this case, the transaction perimeter was materially revised downward ahead of
closing in late 2024, while Dimand’s effective participation in the JV has settled at 28% (from
55% assumed in our previous report).
– Taking into account the updated progress timelines for individual projects, we have
adjusted the recognition of fair value gains accordingly, shifting a larger portion into 2026,
when we expect significant construction progress and the completion of key projects such
as IQ Athens and Balkan.
DIMAND
July 22, 2025
11
– Another adjustment is the postponement of the anticipated exit from the 3V JV from 2027
to 2028 as per our timeline modelling, since the urban planning process is still maturing.
According to management, construction is now expected to begin in late 2026.
– Finally, we highlight that as of 30/06/2024, independent valuers have factored in a material
c28% increase in the development cost of IQ Athens, implying an additional €28m vs
December 2023. This cost estimate remained unchanged in their report as of 31/12/2024.
In our view, this adjustment appears excessive; therefore, we have applied a more
conservative 5% increase in construction cost assumptions in our model, in line with our
previous report.
Estimate changes
New 2025e 2026e
Sales 54.1 52.7
EBITDA 51.8 84.8
Net profit 45.3 74.3
NAV 225.6 299.9
Previous 2025e 2026e
Sales 35.7 32.4
EBITDA 48.5 55.0
Net profit 41.6 45.5
NAV 226.4 259.4
Change 2025e 2026e
Sales 52% 63%
EBITDA 7% 54%
Net profit 9% 63%
NAV 0% 16%
